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Frequency analysis of climate extreme events in Zanjan, Iran 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Saeed Jahanbaksh Asl Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust Yagob Dinpashoh Fatemeh Sarafrouzeh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(7):1637-1650
In this study, generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) were fitted to the maximum and minimum temperature, maximum wind speed, and maximum precipitation series of Zanjan. Maximum (minimum) daily and absolute annual observations of Zanjan station from 1961 to 2011 were used. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Quantiles corresponding to 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return periods were calculated. It was found that both candidate distributions fitted to extreme events series, were statistically reasonable. Most of the observations from 1961 to 2011 were found to fall within 1–10 years return period. Low extremal index (θ) values were found for excess maximum and minimum temperatures over a high threshold, indicating the occurrence of consecutively high peaks. For the purpose of filtering the dependent observations to obtain a set of approximately independent threshold excesses, a declustering method was performed, which separated the excesses into clusters, then the de-clustered peaks were fitted to the GPD. In both models, values of the shape parameters of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speed were close to zero. The shape parameter was less negative in the GPD than the GEV. This leads to significantly lower return period estimates for high extremes with the GPD model. 相似文献
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Mirfenderski Ramtin Darzi-Naftchali Abdullah Karandish Fatemeh 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,147(1-2):409-422
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Improving the economic productivity of limited available freshwater through producing more rice with less water is essential to sustain paddy production... 相似文献
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For the first time, the calcareous nannofossils of marly deposits near Kerman (Bardsir area) have been studied. This study presents the integrated (calcareous nannofossils) biostratigraphy of the Bardsir section in the Kerman basin, Central Iran. In most parts of Central Iran, the Upper Cretaceous sequence is complete and continuous and is divided into two groups: Cenomanian–Touronian flysch and Campanian–Maastrichtian flysch. Flyschs composed of sets of green marl sequences (Coniacian–Santonian) have been separated to reduce the basin depth and refer to the relative calm. Bardsir is located 57.6 km from Kerman (Central Iran). The lithology of this area includes light green marl with layers of calcareous siltstone, limestone, and flysch rocks. In this study, 24 samples were taken and prepared with smear slide. Most species were photographed with a light microscope. As a result of this study, 30 genera and 42 species of nannofossils have been identified. A high-resolution calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphic study has been carried out, allowing the division of the studied section into eight biozones of Late Santonian to Early Maastrichtian age (CC17–CC24). 相似文献
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Raffaele?De RisiEmail author Fatemeh?Jalayer Francesco?De Paola Sarah?Lindley 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1545-1559
Delineation of flood risk hotspots can be considered as one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk management and mitigation. This paper presents a step-by-step methodology in a GIS-based framework for identifying flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. The novelty of this paper consists in the fact that the flood-prone areas (the TWI thresholds) are identified through a maximum likelihood method (MLE) based both on inundation profiles calculated for a specific return period (TR), and on information about the extent of historical flooding in the area of interest. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter updating is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold by employing the historical extent as prior information and the inundation map for calculating the likelihood function. For different statistics of the TWI threshold, the map of potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of residential urban morphology units in order to delineate the residential flooding risk urban hotspots. Overlaying the delineated urban hotspots with geo-spatial census datasets, the number of people affected by flooding is estimated. These kind of screening procedures are particularly useful for locations where there is a lack of detailed data or where it is difficult to perform accurate flood risk assessment. In fact, an application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated for the identification of urban flooding risk hotspots in the city of Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, a city for which the observed spatial extent of a major flood event in 2009 and a calculated inundation map for a return period of 300 years are both available. 相似文献
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Modelling uncertainty can significantly affect the structural seismic reliability assessment. However, the limit state excursion due to this type of uncertainty may not be described by a Poisson process as it lacks renewal properties with the occurrence of each earthquake event. Furthermore, considering uncertainties related to ground motion representation by employing recorded ground motions together with modelling uncertainties is not a trivial task. Robust fragility assessment, proposed previously by the authors, employs the structural response to recorded ground motion as data in order to update prescribed seismic fragility models. Robust fragility can be extremely efficient for considering also the structural modelling uncertainties by creating a dataset of one-to-one assignments of structural model realizations and as-recorded ground motions. This can reduce the computational effort by more than 1 order of magnitude. However, it should be kept in mind that the fragility concept itself is based on the underlying assumption of Poisson-type renewal. Using the concept of updated robust reliability, considering both the uncertainty in ground motion representation based on as-recorded ground motion and non ergodic modelling uncertainties, the error introduced through structural reliability assessment by using the robust fragility is quantified. It is shown through specific application to an existing RC frame that this error is quite small when the product of the time interval and the standard deviation of failure rate is small and is on the conservative side. 相似文献
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Gholamzadeh Majid Ayoubi Shamsollah Shahrivar Fatemeh Sheikhi 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2019,63(3):465-484
Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica - We examine the potential of magnetic susceptibility measurements to discriminate different soil drainage classes in the Gandoman region, central Iran. Four soil... 相似文献
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Najmeh?Khalili Saeed?Reza?KhodashenasEmail author Kamran?Davary Mohammad?Mousavi?Baygi Fatemeh?Karimaldini 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(13):624
In this paper, we have utilized ANN (artificial neural network) modeling for the prediction of monthly rainfall in Mashhad synoptic station which is located in Iran. To achieve this black-box model, we have used monthly rainfall data from 1953 to 2003 for this synoptic station. First, the Hurst rescaled range statistical (R/S) analysis is used to evaluate the predictability of the collected data. Then, to extract the rainfall dynamic of this station using ANN modeling, a three-layer feed-forward perceptron network with back propagation algorithm is utilized. Using this ANN structure as a black-box model, we have realized the complex dynamics of rainfall through the past information of the system. The approach employs the gradient decent algorithm to train the network. Trying different parameters, two structures, M531 and M741, have been selected which give the best estimation performance. The performance statistical analysis of the obtained models shows with the best tuning of the developed monthly prediction model the correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) are 0.93, 0.99, and 6.02 mm, respectively, which confirms the effectiveness of the developed models. 相似文献
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Najmeh Sheikhzadeh Fatemeh Chehrara Marzieh Heidarieh Katayoon Nofouzi Behzad Baradaran 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2016,34(1):13-18
Effects of irradiated and non-irradiated Ergosan extract (alginic acid) on rainbow trout growth performance and skin mucosal immunity were compared. Ergosan was irradiated at 30 kGy in a cobalt-60 irradiator. A total of 252 fish (128.03±9.4 g) were randomly divided into four equal groups, given the basal diet either unsupplemented with Ergosan (control group) or supplemented with crude Ergosan (5 g/kg), ethanol-extracted Ergosan (0.33 g/kg) or irradiated Ergosan (0.33 g/kg) according to this protocol: basal diet for 15 days, treatment diet for 15 days, basal diet for 10 days and treatment diet for 15 days. Highest growth performance was observed in fish fed irradiated Ergosan (P <0.05). Dietary administration of different Ergosan types did not cause any changes in mucus protein level, but improved alkaline phosphatase level and hemagglutination titer compared with the control (basal diet without Ergosan) on day 55 of feeding trial (P <0.05). Furthermore, the highest value of lysozyme activity was observed in gamma-irradiated Ergosan on day 55. In conclusion, gamma-irradiated Ergosan at 0.33 g/kg was found to improve growth performance and mucus biological components significantly in comparison with the control group (basal diet without Ergosan). 相似文献